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The Lancet Respiratory Medicine

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match The Lancet Respiratory Medicine's content profile, based on 17 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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A Clinical Predictor of Lung Molecular Endotype Identifies Heterogeneity in Corticosteroid Response in Severe COVID-19: an Emulated Target Trial

Sines, B.; Hagan, R.; Jiang, X.; Pavlechko, E.; McClain, S.; Hunt, X.; Florou-Moreno, J.; Acquadro, J.; Risa, G.; Valsaraj, V.; Schisler, J.; Wolfgang, M. C.

2026-06-10 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355201 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background: Corticosteroids reduce mortality in severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen or invasive mechanical ventilation, yet emerging data suggest that SARS-CoV-2-associated acute lung injury is biologically heterogeneous and that treatment response may vary across molecularly defined disease states. Lung-derived molecular endotypes of severe COVID-19-associated acute lung injury have been described, but direct molecular profiling is not routinely available at the bedside. We evaluated whether a clinical predictor of previously defined lung molecular endotype identifies heterogeneity in corticosteroid treatment effect among mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19. Methods: We utilized a single-center cohort of 5,000 patients with COVID-19 treated at the University of North Carolina Hospital between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2022, to emulate a target trial assessing the effect of corticosteroid receipt on mortality, length of stay, and incident organ support. Confounding was addressed through inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Outcomes for severely ill patients requiring mechanical ventilation were compared to the RECOVERY trial results, with subsequent moderation analysis and stratified analysis by clinically predicted lung molecular endotype and vaccination status. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Secondary Outcomes were time to discharge alive and progression to additional organ support. Results: This emulated target trial showed a directionally favorable but non-statistically significant association between corticosteroid treatment and reduced 28-day mortality in patients requiring mechanical ventilation for SARS-CoV-2 infection. A clinical predictor of lung molecular endotype moderated the effect of corticosteroids on 28-day mortality (p-value for interaction 0.038) and identified distinct predicted endotype-specific treatment effect. Corticosteroid treatment was associated with lower 28-day mortality in the predicted Hyper-Inflammatory endotype (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.39, 0.99) but not in the predicted Metabolic Dysregulation endotype (OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.82, 1.61). We did not detect significant effect modification by vaccination status (p-value for interaction 0.65), although inference was limited by the small, vaccinated subgroup (28-mortality OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.37, 1.65 in vaccinated vs 0.94, 95% CI 0.70, 1.26 in unvaccinated). Conclusions: In this target trial emulation of mechanically ventilated patients with severe COVID-19, corticosteroid treatment showed a directionally favorable but non-statistically significant association with reduced 28-day mortality in the overall cohort. However, a clinical predictor of lung molecular endotype identified significant heterogeneity in treatment effect, with benefit concentrated in the predicted Hyper-Inflammatory endotype and no apparent benefit in the predicted Metabolic Dysregulation endotype. These findings support prospective validation of clinically deployable endotype-guided corticosteroid treatment strategies in acute lung injury and ARDS.

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Mycobacteriophage D29-Derived LysB Enhances Anti-Tubercular Therapy in Experimental Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Raman, S. K.; Sharma, R.; Gangakhedkar, R.; Nath, P.; Misra, A.; Jain, V.; Singh, A. K.

2026-05-29 microbiology 10.64898/2026.05.28.728497 medRxiv
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Adjunctive therapies that enhance the efficacy of existing antitubercular drugs are needed for drug-resistant tuberculosis. We evaluated the efficacy of intranasally administered recombinant D29 LysB, a mycobacteriophage-derived mycolylarabinogalactan esterase, in murine and guinea pig models of pulmonary tuberculosis. BALB/c mice and guinea pigs were aerosol-infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv and treated for 4 weeks with LysB alone or with standard antitubercular therapy (ATT: rifampicin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide). Outcomes included pulmonary and extrapulmonary bacterial burden (CFU), lung and spleen histopathology, cytokine profiling, and humoral immune responses. LysB monotherapy produced modest pulmonary CFU reductions. When given adjunctively with ATT, LysB produced an additional 0.6-0.7 log10 reduction in lung CFU compared with ATT alone and decreased splenic dissemination in both species. Combination therapy improved tissue pathology, reducing granulomatous involvement and preserving pulmonary architecture. LysB treatment increased TNF- with a moderate rise in IL-10, a profile consistent with enhanced antibacterial immunity without excessive inflammatory damage. Repeated intranasal administration was well tolerated; no IgE-mediated hypersensitivity was detected. LysB-specific IgG developed but did not diminish therapeutic efficacy. These results show that intranasal D29 LysB augments the bactericidal and histopathological effects of standard ATT in vivo and support further development of inhaled phage-derived lysins as adjunctive therapies for drug-resistant tuberculosis. ImportanceTuberculosis remains a major cause of infectious mortality worldwide, and the increasing burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant disease continues to challenge effective treatment. New therapeutic approaches that complement conventional antibiotics are urgently needed. In this study, intranasally delivered recombinant mycobacteriophage-derived LysB was well tolerated and enhanced treatment efficacy in experimental pulmonary tuberculosis. Adjunctive LysB improved bacterial clearance, reduced tissue pathology, and modulated host immune responses in both murine and guinea pig models. These findings highlight phage-derived endolysins as promising inhalable adjunctive therapeutics for drug-resistant tuberculosis.

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Rationale and Design of RECOVER-ENERGIZE: A Platform Clinical Trial of Interventions for Exercise Intolerance With and Without Post-exertional Malaise in Long COVID

Friedly, J.; Bateman, L.; Berdan, L. G.; Casaburi, R.; Erdmann, N.; Felker, G. M.; Itchon-Ramos, N.; Keteyian, S. J.; MacIntyre, N. R.; OBrien, L.; Reist, C.; Rossiter, H. B.; Silverstein, A. P.; Taylor, E.; Pike Welch, H.; Yanez, N. D.; Zimmerman, K. O.; Make, B.

2026-06-03 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354455 medRxiv
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Introduction: A prominent symptom of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (i.e., Long COVID) is exercise intolerance with or without post-exertional malaise (PEM). PEM is characterized by the worsening of both symptoms and function following even minor physical or mental exertion, with symptoms typically worsening 12 to 48 hours after activity and lasting for days or even weeks. Individualized, supervised cardiopulmonary rehabilitation is considered a safe and effective intervention for many cardiac and pulmonary conditions, and has been effective in gradually improving function in previously hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients with severe COVID-19. While traditional cardiopulmonary rehabilitation approaches appear helpful in some situations, the exercise intolerance symptoms experienced by many individuals with Long COVID may require a different approach, especially when attempts to increase physical activity result in PEM. No clear consensus exists on the optimal treatment of PEM, and no major studies have evaluated the efficacy in individuals with Long COVID of either carefully supervised, individualized cardiopulmonary rehabilitation programs for exercise intolerance without significant PEM or activity pacing interventions designed to treat or prevent PEM. Methods and Analysis: The Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery Clinical Trials (RECOVER-CT) initiative funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) included a prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled platform trial (RECOVER-ENERGIZE) designed to assess two interventions in patients with Long COVID and exercise intolerance: (1) cardiopulmonary rehabilitation for patients without significant PEM and (2) structured activity pacing to prevent or reduce PEM in participants who experience the symptom. The intervention duration will be 12 weeks. The primary endpoints for the trial include the Endurance Shuttle Walk Test as a measure of endurance capacity for the cardiopulmonary rehabilitation intervention and a modified version of the DePaul Symptom Questionnaire - Post-Exertional Malaise for the pacing intervention. Assessments will be completed at baseline, middle of intervention, end of intervention, and 12 weeks after completion of the intervention, and include physical performance measures and patient-reported surveys. Ethics and Dissemination: The RECOVER-ENERGIZE trial protocol has been approved by an institutional review board (Advarra), and written informed consent will be obtained from all participants prior to enrollment. The trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT06404047). Formally assessing PEM and developing a structured activity pacing intervention delivered by local pacing coaches are novel features of this trial. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, presentations at scientific conferences, and communication with participants, patient advocacy organizations, and the broader Long COVID community. De-identified participant data will be made available through the NIH RECOVER data repository in accordance with NIH data-sharing policies. If successful, this protocol will provide accessible tools that clinicians can use to address exercise intolerance and PEM in patients with Long COVID.

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Risk of progression to pulmonary tuberculosis among household contacts with chest radiographic abnormalities in South Africa

Mulenga, H.; Muchiri, E.; Mendelsohn, S. C.; Malherbe, S. T.; Moloantoa, T.; Tameris, M.; Maruri, F.; Noor, F.; Panchia, R.; Hlongwane, K.; Stanley, K.; Hadley, K.; Martinson, N.; Walzl, G.; Scriba, T. J.; Hatherill, M.; RePORT South Africa Study Team,

2026-06-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354586 medRxiv
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Background High-risk subgroups among household contacts of persons with tuberculosis (TB) might benefit from additional interventions. However, the significance of an abnormal baseline chest radiograph (CXR) suggestive of TB, despite negative sputum microbiology, is uncertain. Methods Adults ([≥]18 years) with recent household TB exposure were enrolled at three South African sites (April 2021-September 2022). All participants underwent symptom screening, CXR, and sputum Xpert Ultra and MGIT culture. Pulmonary TB diagnosis was microbiologically-confirmed. Participants without prevalent TB were followed for symptomatic incident TB through 12 months. Multivariable logistic regression identified factors associated with abnormal CXR suggestive of TB. Poisson regression estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results Baseline CXR were available for 795/846 (94.0%) participants without prevalent TB and were abnormal in 157/795 (19.7%); associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio, aOR=1.04, 95%CI 1.02-1.05); prior TB (aOR=6.39, 95%CI 4.18-9.78); and current smoking (aOR=1.61, 95%CI 1.00-2.62). Symptomatic incident TB developed in 8/795 (1.0%) participants, including 7/8 (87.5%) who were asymptomatic and 4/8 (50.0%) with abnormal CXR at baseline. TB incidence was higher in those with abnormal versus normal CXR (aIRR=4.11, 95%CI 1.29-13.09), but after median 12.1 (IQR 11.1-13.1) months follow-up, 153/157 (97.5%) had not progressed to incident TB. Conclusions Adult household contacts with CXR abnormalities, but without prevalent TB, had a four-fold higher incidence of TB within one year, compared to those with normal CXR. This additional risk warrants targeted preventive treatment and extended surveillance, but since most remained TB-free, therapeutic TB treatment is not justified.

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Methotrexate and Prednisolone compared to placebo and prednisolone in the treatment of Erythema Nodosum Leprosum - an international multicentre, double-blind randomised controlled clinical trial - MaPs in ENL

de Barros, B.; Sultana, F.; Maximus, N.; Pai, V. V.; Wakade, A.; Bhame, B.; Acharya, B.; Hamza, A.; Getachew, A.; Alinda, M. D.; Listiawan, M. Y.; Nigusse, S. D.; Hagge, D. A.; Napit, I.; Shah, M.; Darlong, J.; Nicholls, P.; Bernd, B.; Lambert, S. M.; Lockwood, D. N. J.; Walker, S. L.

2026-05-21 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353561 medRxiv
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Background Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) is a severe inflammatory complication of leprosy that often requires prolonged corticosteroid therapy which is associated with adverse effects. Methotrexate is an affordable immunomodulatory agent with limited evidence for its use in ENL treatment. We evaluated whether weekly oral methotrexate in additional to prednisolone reduces the need for additional prednisolone in adults with severe ENL. Methods and Findings We performed an international, multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial conducted at five leprosy referral centres in Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, and Nepal. Adults aged 18-60 years with severe ENL were randomised to receive oral methotrexate and prednisolone, or matching placebo and prednisolone. All participants received an identical prednisolone regime over 20 weeks and were followed for 60 weeks. The primary outcome was time to first ENL flare requiring additional prednisolone, assessed over 24 and 48 weeks. Between January 2023 and June 2024, 231 individuals were screened and 137 were randomised (68 methotrexate and prednisolone; 69 placebo and prednisolone). By 24 weeks, 85/137 (62.0%) participants experienced an ENL flare requiring additional prednisolone; the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for methotrexate versus placebo was 0.98 (95% CI 0.62-1.54). By 48 weeks, 102/137 (74.5%) experienced an ENL flare; adjusted HR 0.95 (95% CI 0.62-1.43). Secondary outcomes were similar: methotrexate did not reduce ENL severity at first flare, flare frequency, or severity of subsequent flares. Health-related quality of life improved substantially in both groups with no evidence of a differential treatment effect. Methotrexate was generally well tolerated. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03775460). Conclusions Oral methotrexate added to prednisolone did not reduce the requirement for additional prednisolone or delay ENL flares compared to placebo and prednisolone, and our study does not support the use of methotrexate for severe ENL.

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Longitudinal performance of the ENLIST ENL Severity Scale in individuals with severe erythema nodosum leprosum: responsiveness, trajectories and clinical features - a secondary analysis of the Methotrexate and Prednisolone study - MaPs in ENL

de Barros, B.; Hamza, A.; Getachew, A.; Medhi, M.; Sultana, F.; Acharya, B.; Pai, V.; Wakade, A.; Bhame, B.; Hagge, D.; Napit, I.; Shah, M.; Maximus, N.; Darlong, J.; Listiawan, M. Y.; Doni, S.; Nicholls, P.; Genser, B.; Lambert, S. M.; Lockwood, D. N. J.; Walker, S. L.

2026-06-01 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354110 medRxiv
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Background Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) is a severe inflammatory complication of lepromatous leprosy characterised by recurrent inflammatory episodes often requiring prolonged immunosuppression. The severity of ENL can be quantified using the validated and reliable ENLIST ENL Severity Scale (EESS). The longitudinal course of ENL and how it is captured using standardised severity measures has not been well described. We prospectively evaluated the changes in ENL severity over time using the EESS in a randomised clinical trial. Methods We conducted a post-hoc analysis of participants enrolled in the Methotrexate and Prednisolone Study in ENL, an international multicentre randomised controlled trial conducted in Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, and Nepal. Adults with severe ENL (EESS score [&ge;]9) were followed for 60 weeks with repeated EESS assessments. Longitudinal trajectories were analysed using mixed-effects regression models. Item-level analyses characterised the clinical phenotype captured by the scale. Associations between EESS score, prednisolone exposure, and dermatology-specific health-related quality of life measured using the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) were examined. Findings A total of 135 participants contributed 1,958 EESS assessments. Mean EESS declined rapidly during the first four weeks of treatment (-2.10 points/week; 95% CI -2.36 to -1.84; p<0.001), increased modestly during reduction in corticosteroid dose (weeks 4-20), and gradually declined thereafter. Severe ENL (EESS score [&ge;]9) occurred in 20.6% of visits and was characterised primarily by pain and cutaneous inflammatory manifestations. Participants who required additional prednisolone had persistently higher EESS scores and showed limited improvement compared with those who did not receive additional prednisolone. Longitudinal EESS scores were strongly correlated with the DLQI score (Spearmans {rho}=0.75; p<0.001). Conclusion The EESS captures clinically meaningful changes in ENL severity, aligns with treatment decisions, and reflects patient-reported severity over time. These findings support the use of the EESS as a robust tool for monitoring ENL severity in both clinical research and routine care.

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Geographical targeting of active case finding for tuberculosis in Pakistan using artificial intelligence software (SPOT-TB): a pragmatic stepped wedge cluster randomized control trial.

Mahfooz, A.; Latif, A.; Zaidi, S. M. A.; Ahmed, W.; Nawaz, N.; Reza, T. E.; Tahir, A.; Ur Rehman, F.; Naveed, S.; Shahid, A.; Ali, F.; Emmanuel, F.

2026-05-22 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.20.26348577 medRxiv
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Background Community-wide active case-finding (ACF) is being increasingly implemented as a tuberculosis (TB) elimination intervention. However, conventional site selection strategies may result in low yields from screening. We evaluated whether an artificial intelligence (AI) software guided targeting strategy could improve detection of TB during screening activities (called camps) relative to routine approaches to site selection in the programmatic setting in Pakistan. Methods We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial embedded within Global Fund supported ACF activities implemented by Pakistan s National TB Program and private sector partners. Thirty mobile X-ray van teams operating in 68 districts were randomly assigned to transition from routine site selection approaches (based on field-staff experience and historical data) to an AI-guided targeting strategy, using the software MATCH-AI. We assessed the effect of the intervention on the primary outcome, Camp Positivity Yield, defined as the number of individuals diagnosed with bacteriologically confirmed TB per camp, using generalised linear mixed models. The primary analysis was by intention to treat. Camps conducted within a 5-km radius of the AI selected locations were included in a validated per-protocol analysis. We conducted several district-level subgroup analyses. This trial is registered, number NCT06017843. Findings Between August 2023 and September 2024, 3,936 screening camps were conducted (2,046 control, 1,890 intervention), screening 269,254 individuals. In the intention-to-treat analysis, Camp Positivity Yield was 7% higher in the intervention group relative to the control group, however this difference was not statistically significant (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 1.07, 95% CI: 0.94 -1.22). In the validated per-protocol analysis, Camp Positivity Yield was 32% higher in the intervention group relative to the control group (adjusted RR 1.32, 95% CI: 1.12-1.54). Yields were highest in districts that had moderate baseline yields of 0.5-1% per population screened prior to the trial (adjusted RR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.13 - 2.18) and in rural districts (adjusted RR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.23 -1.65). Interpretation The use of an AI-guided targeting strategy significantly increased detection of bacteriologically confirmed TB during active case-finding in the validated per-protocol analysis, relative to conventional site-selection approaches employed by field-staff. This software may be considered as a supportive tool to improve the efficiency of community-based TB case-finding interventions in other high burden countries.

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Elevated baseline adiponectin levels predict increased risk of progression to tuberculosis among interferon gamma release assay-positive close contacts

Amorim, G.; Araujo-Pereira, M.; Dill-McFarland, K. A.; Rangel, F. A.; Mendelsohn, S. C.; Figueiredo, M. C.; Cordeiro-Santos, M.; Rolla, V. C.; Mello, F. C. Q.; Rebeiro, P. F.; Scriba, T. J.; Hawn, T. R.; Andrade, B. B.; Sterling, T. R.; RePORT-Brazil consortium,

2026-05-18 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.14.26352472 medRxiv
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Background: Without tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT), approximately 5% of individuals infected with M. tuberculosis progress to active tuberculosis (TB) disease. Recent studies have identified body mass index (BMI) < 25 kg/m2 as a predictor of TB progression, but additional markers are needed to better identify persons at increased risk. Methods: Close contacts of patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB were enrolled in the Regional Prospective Observational Research in Tuberculosis (RePORT)-Brazil cohort from 2015 to 2019 and followed for up to 24 months. Analyses were restricted to interferon-{gamma} release assay (IGRA)-positive contacts who did not receive TPT or received <30 days of isoniazid. Prediction models to identify close contacts at increased TB risk were constructed using two complementary approaches: incremental models used BMI as the base predictor and evaluated whether baseline whole-blood transcriptomic signatures, human genetic polymorphism risk scores derived from low-pass whole-genome sequencing, and BMI-related plasma biomarkers improved model discrimination. Agnostic models did not impose BMI in the model and used penalized regression for predictor selection. Results: Among 285 close contacts, 15 (5%) progressed to TB. The model with BMI as unique predictor had a C-index of 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55; 0.77). Adding Rajan5 or Duffy9 transcriptomic signature scores to BMI improved discrimination compared with BMI alone, with C-indices of 0.78 (95% CI 0.62; 0.99) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.61; 0.89), respectively, but did not further improve discrimination after accounting for adiponectin. Adding adiponectin to BMI increased the C-index to 0.80 (95% CI 0.68; 0.91), while adiponectin alone captured most of the discriminatory performance in agnostic models (C-index, 0.80, 95% CI 0.69; 0.91). Genetic risk scores, leptin, and the adiponectin:leptin ratio did not improve model discrimination compared with the BMI-only model. In exploratory post hoc analyses, higher adiponectin was associated with increased risk of progression to TB, with each two-fold increase associated with a higher hazard of TB (HR 2.91, 95% CI 1.73; 4.91, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Baseline adiponectin strongly predicted progression to TB among close contacts and captured most of the discriminatory information contained in epidemiological and transcriptomic variables. Its consistent selection across modelling approaches supports adiponectin as a promising biomarker for TB risk stratification.

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Undetected isoniazid resistance leads to rifampin-resistant tuberculosis

Spies, R.; Hanh, N. H.; Phu, P. T.; Lan, L. K.; Lan, K.; Hue, N. N.; Quang, N. L.; Thu, D. D. A.; Huong, N. T. L.; Thao, T. L. T. N.; Tram, T. T. B.; Ha, V. T. N.; Ha, D. T. M.; Hai, N. P.; Thuan, N. H.; Quy, T. T. K.; Lan, N. H.; Dreyer, V.; Niemann, S.; Crook, D.; Van, L. H.; Thwaites, G.; Thuong, N. T. T.; Choisy, M.; Watson, J.; Walker, T.

2026-05-24 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.22.26353840 medRxiv
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Background: Isoniazid resistance is the most common form of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) globally. However, WHO-recommended molecular tests available to most TB patients worldwide detect rifampin resistance only, risking under-treatment of isoniazid-resistant, rifampin-susceptible TB (HR-TB) and subsequent emergence of rifampin resistance. Methods: This prospective study (2020-2024) aimed to collect and archive sputum specimens from all adults diagnosed with rifampin-susceptible pulmonary TB in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Cases were participants who developed rifampin-resistant recurrence; controls had rifampin-susceptible recurrence or no recurrence. Whole-genome sequencing of paired isolates distinguished acquired rifampin resistance from reinfection. The effect of pre-existing isoniazid resistance on rifampin resistance acquisition was estimated using inverse probability of treatment weighting, and the projected epidemiological impact of routine HR-TB testing was modelled. Results: 42,843 people were diagnosed with TB during the study period, from whom we archived 33,843 sputum samples. We enrolled 1,241 participants, 873 (70.4%) of whom had analysable data. 51/873 (5.8%) acquired rifampin resistance, of whom 49/51 (96.1%) had undetected isoniazid resistance. The weighted risk of acquired rifampin resistance was 2.98% (95% CI 2.08-4.50) with undetected isoniazid resistance, versus 0.03% (0.00-0.08) without (risk ratio105.42 (33.43-309.69)). Modelling projected that universal HR-TB diagnosis and treatment would reduce RR-TB incidence by 46% (35-61) over 10 years in Vietnam, with reductions of 26% (12-43) projected even where HR-TB prevalence was as low as 5%. Conclusions: Undetected, under-treated HR-TB confers a 100 fold increased risk of acquiring rifampin resistance. Routine isoniazid susceptibility testing combined with effective HR-TB treatment could substantially reduce the burden of RR-TB.

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High prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth co-infections in persons with tuberculosis in South India

Narasimhan, P. B.; Jain, K.; Rajkumari, N.; Dauphinais, M. R.; Priyanga, J. R.; Shaikh, S.; Patel, J. U.; Babu, S. P.; Cintron, C.; Karoly, M.; Carwile, M. E.; Liu, A. F.; Maloomian, K.; Locks, L. M.; Mehta, S.; Sarkar, S.; Singh, U. B.; Ellner, J. J.; Salgame, P.; Heysell, S. K.; Hochberg, N. S.; Lakshminarayanan, S.; Sinha, P.

2026-06-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.26.26353735 medRxiv
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Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are a plausible but under-characterized comorbidity in tuberculosis. In this prospective South Indian cohort, multiplex stool PCR detected STH in 43% of 137 adults with pulmonary tuberculosis and 34% of 230 household contacts. Food insecurity independently predicted co-infection. Current adult deworming gaps warrant evaluation.

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Multi-organ post-acute sequelae of major respiratory and Aedes-borne arboviral diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Ponce, L. J.; Xu, B.; Choo, E. L. W.; Chow, J. Y.; Rayapati, R.; Ling, B. Z. M.; Wee, L. E.; Li, R.; Lye, D. C. B.; Ooi, E. E.; Tan, K. B.; Lim, J. T.

2026-05-19 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.15.26353287 medRxiv
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Background Post-acute sequelae are well described following COVID-19 but may also occur after other respiratory infections and Aedes-borne infections. Evidence remains fragmented due to heterogeneity in study design, populations, and exposure, outcome, and follow-up definitions. Methods We synthesized and compared post-acute sequelae across influenza, RSV-ARI, dengue fever, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever. We searched five databases from inception to 25-08-2025 for articles quantifying risk, incidence, or rates of post-acute sequelae following these diseases. Eligible non-randomized observational studies assessed post-acute neurological, psychiatric, gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, musculoskeletal, autoimmune, or endocrine outcomes after confirmed infection. Risk of bias was assessed using ROBINS-E. Random-effects meta-analyses with restricted maximum likelihood estimation were conducted when comparable effect estimates were available (PROSPERO #CRD420251124994). Findings 51 studies were included, predominantly from high-income regions. Most were retrospective cohorts using ICD-coded diagnoses; prospective studies used laboratory-confirmed infections. Data sources, comparator groups, exposure definitions, outcome ascertainment, and follow-up periods varied substantially. Meta-analyses were feasible for RSV, influenza, and dengue fever. All RSV-ARI studies were pediatric and assessed infections during infancy, which were associated with higher pooled odds of physician-diagnosed asthma (OR:2.93 [95%CI: 2.12-4.06]). Influenza studies used COVID-19-positive comparators; pooled estimates showed lower risk for neurological (HR:0.82 [0.76-0.89]) and composite outcomes (RR:0.88 [0.82-0.95]), with other organ systems non-significant. Dengue fever studies spanned all ages and showed increased risks of anxiety (HR:1.34 [1.01-1.78]), dementia (HR:1.61 [1.10-2.35]), autoimmune (RR:1.39 [1.17-1.67]), cardiovascular (HR:1.51 [1.27-1.80]), psychiatric (HR:1.17 [1.07-1.28]), and any sequelae (HR:1.19 [1.13-1.25]) versus those without prior infection. Interpretations Post-acute sequelae contribute to overall disease burden following RSV-ARI and dengue fever. The evidence remains limited by heterogeneity in study design, exposure and outcome definitions, comparator selection, and follow-up duration. Greater standardization in study design and reporting is needed to improve comparability and strengthen causal inference.

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Heterogeneity in Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity in young children in Blantyre, Malawi: a community-based survey

Rickman, H. M.; Phiri, M. D.; Mbale, H.; Feasey, H. R.; Nliwasa, M.; Chagaluka, G.; Seddon, J. A.; Mwandumba, H. C.; Horton, K. C.; Henrion, M. Y.; Mwenyenkulu, T.; Mbendera, K. N.; Nightingal, E. S.; Corbett, E. L.; MacPherson, P.

2026-05-21 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.21.26349011 medRxiv
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Background: As tuberculosis (TB) incidence declines, transmission increasingly concentrates into vulnerable populations. There is an urgent need for affordable surveillance strategies to monitor trends, identify high-risk groups and target interventions. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) immunoreactivity surveys indirectly detect transmission and therefore undiagnosed infectious disease. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional community-based interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) survey in children aged 1-4 years in Blantyre, Malawi. Community-representative participants were recruited using novel convenience sampling in health facilities alongside random household sampling, and tested for Mtb immunoreactivity using QFT-Plus IGRA. We constructed hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression models for IGRA positivity, with neighbourhood-level random effects. Findings: Of 1,545 participants, 102 (6.6%) had a positive IGRA: an annual risk of Mtb infection (ARTI) of 2.7% (95% CrI 2.2-3.2%). Immunoreactivity was higher in the poorest third of households (8.7% vs 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio: 1.88, 95% CrI 1.08-3.01) compared to the richest, but was not associated with HIV exposure, malnutrition or reported household TB exposure. There was substantial between-neighbourhood heterogeneity (ARTI range 1.1-4.1%). There was no association between neighbourhood-level TB case notifications and ARTI. Interpretation: An innovative convenience sampling approach identified a high burden and substantial spatial variation of recent TB transmission, which did not correspond to case notification rates. This strategy could support identification of high-risk populations, monitoring of trends and targeted public health interventions.

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Mapping the common and rare variant genetic risk landscape for pulmonary fibrosis with and without family history

Lucas, S.; Raspin, K.; Nelson, N.; Graham, P.; Chear, S.; Zappala, C.; Keir, G.; Goh, N.; Hopkins, P.; Ellis, S.; Navaratnam, V.; Cooper, W.; Glaspole, I.; Reynolds, P.; Chia, C.; Grainge, C.; Kendall, P.; Troy, L.; Nunez Martinez, N.; Peljto, A.; Fingerlin, T.; Schwartz, D.; Walsh, S.; Moodley, Y.; Walters, H.; Robertson, J.; Bryan, T.; Chambers, D.; Mackintosh, J.; Corte, T.; Dickinson, J. L.

2026-05-21 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.05.15.26351995 medRxiv
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Background Genetic studies to date are yet to define the major portion of the genetic risk for adult-onset pulmonary fibrosis (PF). Further the dearth of knowledge of clinically actionable variants for PF is hampering efforts to implement genetic testing to aid early diagnosis and improve disease management. Here we evaluated the contribution of rare and common variants to PF in cohorts with and without a family history of PF. Method Whole genome sequencing (WGS) was performed in a familial cohort comprising PF cases and their family members (85 individuals representing 55 families); and 122 cases from the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR) with and without a self-reported family history of PF. WGS data were interrogated for rare potentially PF-causing variants in 33 genes previously associated with PF. Variants that were rare and predicted to be likely causative were formally curated using the American College of Medical Genetics and Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG-AMP) guidelines. Additionally, to examine the common risk variant contribution, a weighted polygenic risk score (PRS) was generated using 16 previously IPF-associated common SNPs. PRS were generated from WGS for the 85 clinically confirmed familial cases and 122 AIPFR cases. In the remaining 202 AIPFR cases, PRS were generated from TaqMan genotyping data. Results Interrogation of WGS generated from 207 individuals with PF revealed multiple rare putative pathogenic variants in both familial and AIPFR cohorts. Formal curation revealed pathogenic (P) or likely pathogenic (LP) variants confirmed in TERT or RTEL1 in four families (7.3%) with the majority of remaining variants classified as variants of uncertain significance (VUS; 12.7%) in seven additional families. Amongst AIPFR participants, four variants met the threshold for classification as P/LP variants (3.3%), with a further six individuals found to harbour VUS following curation (4.9%). Overall weighted PRS did not differ significantly between individuals with familial PF or with no reported family history. However, PRS in all patient groups were significantly elevated compared with population controls. Conclusion VUS remain the major portion of rare variants identified in known PF -related genes. For ~80% individuals with a confirmed family history no potentially causative variants were identified in known PF related genes nor was there evidence that a high burden of common variants contributed to risk in these families. Similarly, we found no evidence that a high burden of common variants contributes to a significant proportion of risk PF in those individuals with no reported family history.

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Bacterial diversity and strain dynamics in the infant respiratory microbiome during the first year of life

Gazolla Volpiano, C.; Judd, L. M.; Harshegyi-Hand, T.; Wick, R. R.; Sly, P. D.; Holt, P. G.; Kusel, M.; Strickland, D. H.; Inouye, M.; Holt, K. E.; Meric, G.

2026-05-20 microbiology 10.64898/2026.05.20.726687 medRxiv
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BackgroundMicrobial colonisation of the human body begins immediately after birth, with each body site forming a distinct ecological niche. While early gut microbial dynamics and their links to paediatric health have been considerably studied, the bacterial colonisation of the early infant respiratory system remains poorly understood, particularly at the species and strain level. ResultsHere, we generated and analysed whole genome sequencing of 925 isolates from six dominant genera in nasopharyngeal samples from 58 healthy infants enrolled in the Childhood Asthma Study (CAS) in Western Australia, collected longitudinally from birth (2, 6, and 12 months old). Our results expanded genomic reference catalogues and uncovered substantial strain-level diversity in dominant infant airway taxa. Plate-sweep metagenomics identified four microbiome profile groups (MPGs) with age-dependent membership, confirming prior observations while enabling high-resolution species and strain analyses. Community maturation was characterised by a shift from early Staphylococcus aureus dominance to increased Moraxella catarrhalis dominance by 12 months of age, alongside marked temporal changes in prevalence and cohort-level strain diversity. ConclusionsThese findings resolve infant nasopharyngeal microbiota composition at the species and strain level, revealing taxon-specific colonisation patterns. By substantially expanding publicly available reference genomes for underrepresented airway taxa, this work also provides a foundation for functional follow-up studies of the early respiratory microbiota and respiratory outcomes.

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Neutrophil-primed immunopathology in poorly-controlled diabetes worsens matrix destruction in pulmonary tuberculosis

Thong, P. M.; Hu, T. H.; Ooi, J. S. G.; Loh, F. K.; Lee, H.; Bai, C.; Chong, H. T.; Chang, A. J. W.; Choong, C. V.; Galamay, L.; Beh, D. L. L.; Ang, A. X. Y.; Lum, L. H. W.; Yang, S. P.; Lim, A. Y. L.; Mok, S. F.; Vallejo, A. F.; Kao, S. L.; Chan, K. R.; Ong, C. W. M.

2026-05-26 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353970 medRxiv
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Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) worsens pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and drives systemic hyper-inflammation, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. Neutrophils have key roles in TB immunopathology and lung cavitation. Here, we determine the role of neutrophils in DMTB patients and in driving TB immunopathology. Methods: Sputum and plasma from 30 TB and 30 DMTB patients were analysed for proteases and cytokines using Luminex bead array. Whole blood transcriptomics identified transcriptional differences. Single-cell RNA sequencing characterised neutrophil subsets and dysregulated pathways. Neutrophil function of poorly-controlled DM patients (HbA1c>8%) and healthy controls (HC) were examined following Mycobacterium tuberculosis stimulation, including reactive oxygen species (ROS), neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), and phagocytosis. Pathways were interrogated using chemical inhibitors, protein array and western blot. Results: Compared to non-diabetic TB patients, poorly-controlled DMTB patients showed up-regulated sputum MMP-8 and MMP-9, associated with increased collagen-destruction and lung cavity formation. Circulating neutrophil count and neutrophil-derived plasma MMP-8 were up-regulated, alongside transcriptional enrichment of extracellular matrix degradation and inflammatory pathways including TNF and RAGE. Single-cell profiling identified reduced cycling neutrophil subset and myelocytes in DMTB, with overall reduced antibacterial and cell-killing signatures. Ex vivo mycobacterial stimulation of DM neutrophils increased ROS and MMP-9 with impaired NETs and delayed phagocytosis. TNFR1, TNFR2, and RAGE were up-regulated. RAGE inhibition with rosiglitazone mitigated Mtb-induced ROS and MMP-8 release. Conclusion: DM worsens neutrophil-driven tissue destruction and inflammation in TB via dysregulated TNF and RAGE-signalling, priming neutrophils towards immunopathology. Targeting RAGE alongside tight glycaemic control may dampen neutrophil hyper-inflammatory responses to limit tissue destruction.

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Increasing influenza vaccination rates among care home staff: Economic evaluation of the FluCare intervention within a cluster-RCT

Wagner, A. P.; Risebro, H.; Clark, A.; Stirling, S.; Sims, E.; Bion, V.; Blacklock, J.; Birt, L.; Bryant, R.; Cook, L.; Dean, T.; Wyn Griffiths, A.; Guillard, C.; Holland, R.; Jones, A. P.; Jones, L.; Katangwe-Chigamba, T.; Pitcher, J.; Scott, S.; Wright, D.; Patel, A.

2026-06-09 health economics 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355050 medRxiv
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Introduction Care home (CH) influenza vaccination of staff improves resident health, yet uptake remains low at just over 11% (England, 2025/2026). We report an economic evaluation (EE) of "FluCare", an intervention to increase staff influenza vaccination through: vaccination clinics at CHs; promotional materials; and CH financial incentives. Method Seventy-five CHs were randomised to FluCare or control. A cost-consequence analysis took the influenza vaccination programme funder perspective, but also extended to the National Health Service (NHS) and CH perspective. Costs included: influenza vaccination; administration fee; FluCare components; CH resident NHS utilisation. Outcomes were: staff influenza vaccination rates; staff sickness; and resident mortality. Sensitivity analyses excluded intervention CHs that did not host vaccination clinics. Results Compared to control CHs, adjusted analysis found intervention homes with a mean absolute increase in vaccination rates of 1.8% (95% CI: -6.0%, 10.8%; p=0.572) at an increased cost of {pound}451 (95% CI: {pound}239, {pound}675; p<0.001) to the vaccination programme funders: {pound}249 per additional percentage point (PAPP) per CH. Vaccination clinics were delivered late in the influenza season, with 80% taking place from February 2023. Including only intervention CHs that hosted staff flu vaccination clinics (23/35), increases the mean difference to 10.1% (95% CI: 0.9%, 21.9%; p=0.018) and costs to {pound}805 (95% CI: {pound}603, {pound}1,079; p<0.001): {pound}79 PAPP per CH. Differences between trial arms in other costs and outcomes were marginal and generally non-significant. Conclusions FluCare delivered little improvement when staff flu vaccination clinics did not occur and had little impact on other costs/outcomes. Cost-effectiveness depends on willingness-to-pay for increased staff vaccination, but cost PAPP per CH improved from {pound}249 to {pound}79 when only CHs hosting clinics were considered. Late implementation, likely reduced impact by limiting clinic delivery, as reflected in sensitivity analysis. Future evaluations should implement FluCare earlier in the season.

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Detection of Anti-H5 Antibodies in People with Exposure to Wild Birds in Northern Canada

Wallace, H. L.; Hiebert, M.; Hunter, M.; Halbrook, M.; Harrigan, R. J.; Bogoch, I. I.; Rimoin, A. W.; Shaw, S. Y.; Larcombe, L.; Orr, P. H.; Kindrachuk, J.

2026-05-26 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353994 medRxiv
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Using a commercially available H5 serology assay, we identified a 7.4% (n=5/68) anti-H5 seroreactivity rate among hunters in Northern Canada. All participants reported close contact with wild birds.

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Targeted Tuberculosis (TB) Vaccination Strategies in the United States: A Modeling Study

Rothman, J.; Castro, K. G.; Lopman, B.; Gandhi, N. R.; Nelson, K.

2026-05-14 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.11.26352914 medRxiv
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BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) incidence in the United States has remained elevated above pre-pandemic levels since 2021, with over 85% of cases resulting from reactivation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection. New vaccines that would prevent TB in adults are under development, but the potential health impact of a program prioritizing non-U.S.-born persons and persons with medical comorbidities, including persons living with HIV (PLWH), has not been evaluated. MethodsWe developed a deterministic compartmental transmission model that simulates Mtb infection, transmission, and progression to TB in the U.S., both in the general population and in key high-risk groups. We calibrated the model to 2024 U.S. TB surveillance data and estimated annual cases prevented, percent reduction in annual TB cases, and number needed to vaccinate (NNV, a measure of vaccine program efficiency) at equilibrium conditions for targeted vaccination strategies under optimistic and plausible scenarios, varying assumptions of vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, and achieved vaccination coverage in high-risk groups. FindingsUnder an optimistic scenario, vaccinating PLWH, non-U.S.-born persons, and persons with medical comorbidities (all high-risk groups) prevented 5,385 cases per year (51{middle dot}8% reduction, NNV = 366). Under a more conservative plausible scenario, the same strategy prevented 1,348 cases per year (13{middle dot}0% reduction, NNV = 510). The efficiency and impact of targeting strategies we considered were preserved across all sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. InterpretationTargeted vaccination of persons with Mtb infection in population subgroups recognized to be at high-risk for TB can reduce incidence substantially. Strategies that include non- U.S.-born persons and PLWH are most efficient and impactful. FundingAmerican Lung Association, U.S. National Institutes of Health, and the Ferguson Fellowship.

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Intention of UK residents to wear facemasks and practise social distancing during the next respiratory virus pandemic

Smith, D. R.; Buckell, J.; Hancock, T. O.; Morrell, L.; Pouwels, K.

2026-05-30 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.21.26353824 medRxiv
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Background: Wearing facemasks and practising social distancing slow the spread of respiratory pathogens. However, in the event of a new pandemic emerging, the willingness of populations to voluntarily adopt these behaviours is unclear. Methods: A discrete choice experiment was conducted among 2,006 UK-based adults. Participants were presented with hypothetical scenarios describing the emergence of a respiratory virus pandemic and were asked to choose when they would wear facemasks and practise social distancing. A mixed multinomial logit model was used to jointly estimate how disease severity and prevalence, uncertainty in these quantities, and individual-level characteristics influence behavioural choices. Findings: Participants were averse to facemasks and social distancing in the absence of pandemic risk. For each ten-unit increase in severity (10 additional hospitalisations/1,000 infections), the odds of always wearing a facemask outside the home increased by 15.9% (95%CI: 14.3%, 17.5%), relative to rarely/never, and the odds of avoiding all people as much as possible increased by 16.4% (14.6%, 18.2%), relative to not avoiding anyone. Greater disease prevalence, uncertainty in disease severity or disease prevalence, a university education, prior COVID-19 vaccination and non-white ethnicity were also associated with choosing to always wear facemasks and avoid all people as much as possible. The probability of participants choosing to rarely/never wear facemasks varied from 13.4% (11.9%, 14.9%) in the lowest-risk scenario to 1.4% (1.2%, 1.7%) in the highest-risk scenario. Interpretation: Perceived risks of disease and associated uncertainty drive intention of UK adults to adapt their behaviour in a future pandemic.

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Drug allergy labels and complications after surgery: a prospective multi-centre cohort study

Savic, L.; Dias, P.; Vairale, J.; Begum, S.; Khan, K.; Fowler, A. J.; Kaura, V.; Watson, S.-L.; Littlejohns, A.; Pearse, R. M.; Abbott, T. E. F.

2026-06-05 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354882 medRxiv
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Background One in four surgical patients carries a drug allergy label, of which an estimated 90% are incorrect. Avoidance of first-choice drug therapies may lead to worse postoperative outcomes. We sought to determine the nature and extent of any association between drug allergy labels and postoperative complications. Methods A multicentre observational study in 21 NHS hospitals. Eligible patients were 18 years or older, undergoing common surgical procedures: primary hip or knee replacement; internal fixation of closed long bone fracture; colorectal resection; trans-urethral resection of prostate or bladder tumour; caesarean section; hysterectomy. Exclusion criteria: use of antibiotics in the two weeks prior to surgery, previous participation in the study. Primary outcome was postoperative complications within 30 days following surgery, a composite outcome comprising: all postoperative infections, anastomotic leak, acute respiratory distress syndrome, myocardial infarction, postoperative bleed, pulmonary embolism, stroke, antimicrobial side effects, death. Results Among 13,646 patients, 3924 (29%) carried greater than or equal to1 drug allergy labels. Labelled patients were more likely to develop postoperative complications (989/3924 (25%) vs 1926/9722 (20%); OR 1.21 [1.10-1.34]; p<0.001). They were more likely to develop surgical site infections (337/3924 (9%) vs 760/9722 (8%); OR 1.19 [1.03 -1.38]; p<0.018), and any postoperative infection (750/3924 (19%) vs 1472/9722 (15%); OR 1.24 [1.11-1.38] p<0.001). Labelled patients experienced increased risk of allergic drug reactions (31/3924 (0.01%) vs 29/9722 (<0.01%); OR 3.00 [1.77-5.09]; p<0.001), but no increase in mortality. Conclusions Drug allergy labels are common, but often incorrect. Labelled patients experience worse postoperative outcomes, including infective and non-infective complications and increased risk of allergic drug reactions. Trial registration Registered with ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN15775657.